While Saturday’s evening Directors Guild of America Awards went as most pundits expected, then
BAFTAs a day later offered numerous surprises and a lot of new information and food for thought
which can make you rethink some of the predictions and shake up the Oscars race.
Although Everything Everywhere All At Once showed a lot of strength in both ADG and DGA
ceremonies in Unites States then the British BAFTAs offered the film a very underwhelming and
disappointing result and showed its potential vulnerability in the context of academy’s voting
body.
While I expected them to underperform there since it feels much more American than British taste
(it’s partly a story about American Dream and doesn’t offer much for British cultural
consciousness + the evidence on IMDB shows it to have 0.5 higher score among Americans than
non-Americans) and is especially unsuitable for the British Academy of Film and Television Arts
voters - who have shown to be more conservative in their voting habits than their American
counterparts - leaving the ceremony with a sole editing award was even below the lowest
expectation for its performance.
On the bright side for the film, we have also seen something similar to happen before, when more
original and less conventional films like Birdman and Parasite failed to succeed in BAFTAs, while
sweeping the board in guild awards in US and later at the Oscars.
But losing the supporting actor category (for which it had been the most overwhelming favorite
out of all categories) to a film which had two nominees in this category (hence a vote split) and
which didn’t even succeed in winning the Best Picture in the end, can suggest that they
potentially didn’t even come close to winning in most categories they were nominated.
One of my main takeaways of the evening was that there could be a strong cross-cultural
difference in voting this year between US and UK: All Quiet On The Western Front and The
Banshees Of Inesherin are particularly well-suited to a British taste and psyche, while EEAAO, Top
Gun and The Fabelmans are clearly movies more suited to American audience, which could mean
unprecedentedly big split between the BAFTAs and Oscars results this season.
While BAFTAs could be just an outlier event for EEAAO, the results here at least won’t strengthen
the case for EEAAO yet and rather suggest an open race for Best Picture, especially considering
the added preferential ballot element in Oscars.
We haven’t really seen the movie yet putting to the test in this context yet and the PGA on next
weekend will give us some more valuable information.
While I expect EEAAO to do very well at SAG, I think the race for PGA is still pretty open and if
they don’t succeed there, the Best Picture will be far from a lock to win yet.
Therefore, I would offer two alternatives for the Best Picture, which I see now as the biggest
threats for EEAAO in that category: Top Gun and All Quiet on the Western Front.
Either of them winning would go against many historical patterns but I think these are the movies
for which you could build a case for a growing momentum right before the Oscars voting start.
The anti-war film about World War I failed to get nominations in any important guild awards in US,
but absolutely swept the board in BAFTAs, going home with both Best Picture and Best Director
awards, in addition to 5 other wins.
I was actually considering and repeatedly debating with my betting mates to back it for the Best
Picture win in BAFTAs because the odds felt way too long (10+) taking into account how many
nominations it received + how British taste it feels + how well it fits to more conservative voting
patterns in BAFTAs.
One thing I considered only very briefly and which I rather overlooked in deeper analysis level,
was how relevant this film is in the current geopolitical context in the light of Ukraine war and
which is the reason why I started even adding to my position during and after BAFTAs ceremony,
instead of laying my previous position off with profits.
While it can’t get extra momentum anymore from the guild awards in US - because it is not
nominated - the win in BAFTAs will definitely add a lot of attention for the movie and its meaning
for Academy voters in US as well.
The ugliness of the war which All Quiet On Western Front very vividly illustrates and its metaphor
to Putin’s war and Russia’s current aggression may not be as relevant for Americans as for Brits
and Europeans, but it is a very timely movie which can easily get momentum based on the current
Ukraine war narrative after it is now more highlighted by the BAFTAs performance and hence
probably generating more buzz and talking points in Hollywood.
Just to note, on the 24th of February there will be a 1-year anniversary of Russia’s wide-scale
aggression against Ukraine and there has been recently a lot of gossip about Russia taking the
war onto even more ruthless level and strengthening their efforts at some point in February or
March.
I’m not sure what exactly could that mean and how realistic it is (hopefully not), but if that would
happen right before and during the Oscars voting (which starts on March 2nd and ends on March
7th), this could make the film even more relevant and could also generate an “issue voting” boost
at Oscars. It’s clearly an anti-war film which has a strong metaphoric nuance to the current
situation.
Eurovision Song Contest 2022 and BAFTAs now both demonstrated how strong urge people have
to show their support for Ukraine or put out an anti-war statement (social element and context is
often pivotal in creative arts), to vote for things which has a relevance to it (Navalny also won Best
Documentary against general expectations).
While it is questionable how much this type of voting will transfer from Europe to United States, in
general it should be a film suiting well the older audience and preferential ballot, while for younger
more progressive crowd it aligns with the strong anti-war sentiment and message in it.
I’ve been slightly torn about Top Gun chances throughout the season and haven’t had a very
consistent opinion.
I was an early advocate for it in the Best Picture race at Oscars, but after its defeat to The
Fabelmans at Golden Globes, I lost most of my enthusiasm for it.
On the one hand it has felt to me a fundamentally strong picture in this context and having
potentially the necessary magic of cinema and uniting moment for Hollywood.
On the other hand there is still no tangible proof of it to be an outlier blockbuster which can
actually win relevant awards.
The speculation for its chances for Best Picture is still based on a very abstract narrative which
can easily just be a wishful thinking and bullshit which never fulfills in reality but just sounds
convincing and emotionally effective for imagination.
You could make a case that people were trying to push similar narrative for Joker in 2019/2020
which had also a very strong response and commercial success and it failed but I don’t think
these two movies and situations are very similar and back then I was on the opposing side.
I think Joker lacked the nostalgia and relevance to Hollywood that Top Gun has.
It has certainly been a controversial subject for specials bettors and film awards pundits, having a
lot of opposition with many experts saying it is totally chanceless in this race and a false favorite.
Nonetheless, I would make a case that it was relatively one of the biggest winners from the BAFTA
results.
Why?
Foremost, because EEAAO performance signaled that it may be a vulnerable frontrunner, while
the 2nd runner Banshees disappointed as well, which makes the race more open.
Secondly, because the results hinted there could be a significant cultural split this year between
BAFTAs and Oscars and Top Gun is very well-suited for American audience, being a nostalgic
love letter to Hollywood.
If we consider that the frontrunners may be vulnerable, then it is not easy to find competitors
which would be widely likable enough, would work out well with preferential ballot, and could still
get an extra momentum before the Oscars voting to challenge the favorites.
Its biggest disadvantage is the lack of artistic merit, but based on the buzz on Twitter it seemed to
have a passionate liking at the Oscars luncheon; it is the film with the highest audience score from
nominees, doing especially well with older age groups, and should also be sufficiently universally
likeable to benefit from preferential ballot.
It will be only in the race if it wins PGA in coming weekend, but based on common sense it feels
like a producers movie and I would expect it to be generally well-liked in the circles there (as
Spielberg put it, Top Gun is a film which saved the Hollywood’s ass - hence it would deserve
some more recognition by Hollywood as well imo).
If the potential downside for EEAAO with preferential ballot will come true and if we consider that
Banshees couldn’t win even a BAFTA where they had a “home advantage” and were heavy
favorites, then it opens the space for more traditional, conservative and consensually likeable
films like Top Gun and All Quiet On The Western Front (which both have potential for an extra
narrative/momentum to come yet) to finish ahead.
If Everything Everywhere All At Once wins PGA with preferential ballot then I guess we can put all
these alternative theories aside and consider them just as conspiracies while EEAAO will just
sweep the board as Parasite and Birdman did, but as long as it doesn’t happen I think there’s still
room for speculations, especially when taking into account how decided the market seems to be
right now.
I guess we can’t count out Banshees Of Inesherin either yet (or few other movies, in case any of
them would take a shock win at PGA), but considering the potential scenarios and the ceiling for
different ideas, I see these two movies as biggest threats to EEAAO.
I think the Best Director race is still clearly for Daniels to lose and I am currently not planning to
cash out my positions there and will rather add.
