V I L L U  V E E D L A

The 96th Academy Awards season has kicked off in full force recently, and I’ve seen most of the films competing for the most relevant prizes. Hence, I’ve started to trade the market more actively and formed some early opinions on the race and the most probable scenarios that could happen. Oscars results, like other film awards, are often influenced by reflexivity (to borrow George Soros's phrase) and social momentum. Hence, the best trading strategy is mostly to adjust to new information and not to form very strong early opinions. But here are my current thoughts based on the fundamentals:

Oppenheimer

- a film that has enjoyed clear frontrunner status for a while and quite deservingly. It has widespread appeal, love from both the audience and critics, and a relevant theme boosted by recent global events and a heightened probability for a conflict. It is a movie that appeals to different age and demographic groups and has strong social currency, being in the spotlight through most of the year. It should also benefit from the preferential ranking system. There’s been very little hate or dislike against it so far, as we see from IMDB ratings.

Nonetheless, I am not really tempted to back it on the market with current odds. I feel it could have some vulnerability considering how the cultural zeitgeist has been recently preferring more lighthearted themes that offer simple and joyful escapism, instead of darker and more serious themes, and two main rivals for Oppenheimer are offering just that. I feel that's the major risk for Oppenheimer and the reason why I am yet not touching the movie in main categories at the odds currently offered.

Barbie

- it’s hard to talk about Oppenheimer without talking about Barbie, considering that they built one of the most outstanding marketing campaigns in cinema history, aka “Barbenheimer,” which boosted the cultural relevance and social buzz for both of them. My initial reaction to Barbie was as mixed as the general audience feedback: I personally disliked it while feeling it has very good potential for awards season success. It’s very hypable, has a lot of social currency, and a strong theme with philosophical underlying matching the current zeitgeist. Also, directed by a widely loved female director and having enough mainstream success to bring Oscars closer to the mainstream public. Recently, I have felt more skeptical about its Best Picture winning probabilities (as I mentioned in my tweet, the comparison with Top Gun), especially after seeing Poor Things, which I felt had a lot of similarities with Barbie in the sense of the theme and vibe but overrides it thanks to being a more sophisticated and edgy choice. Barbie still has a quite cheap and unsophisticated commercial movie vibe that can turn off more serious movie buffs.

Nonetheless, the Critics Choice nominations were extremely promising for Barbie, and I’ve started to reconsider again my initial reaction. It feels there’s a lot of passion behind the movie, and even if it doesn’t take the major awards in the end, it will likely gather a lot of nominations and is one of the two movies that have a realistic threat to gather passionate enough momentum & hype to challenge Oppenheimer. It’s a very light movie, and the recent Taylor Swift win for the Time Person Of The Year was another proof of the current trends in collective consciousness, which support more simple, joyful, and lighthearted escapism, what I talked about also in my previous article in August.

One thing to note is that if Barbie starts gathering success early in the awards circuit, it could attract a lot of backlash and become a "villain," as Adam Klay put it, of the season. It already has a worryingly large amount of hate and dislike, which can seriously hurt its chances, and early success would only add more fuel to the fire. It's also a sign that the reflexive nature of the awards circuit makes an uphill battle for the type of movie Barbie is.

Poor Things

- I’ve generally disliked Yorgos Lanthimos films and the like which offer too absurd and weird universes for my liking, which have little overlap with natural human behavior and social dynamics. Nonetheless, Poor Things hit differently for me, and I found quite mesmerized and captivated by it. It feels like an instant classic offering a very unique and memorable journey for the viewers. There’s some unexplainable magic in this package, and I could see a scenario for it gathering a late surge in momentum after a slower start in the awards circuit. The theme of the movie itself is quite feminist as Barbie’s which makes them swim in the same soil. It plays also the joyful lightheartedness card which in my opinion boosts its chances considering what do we as a culture & society crave for now, considering global turmoil and messiness which has only intensified recently. Regarding Poor Things' outlook, I’m the most optimistic about Emma Stone - who carried the whole movie - chances to win the Best Actress, and I’ve acted on the markets accordingly, having it as my biggest bet yet in this year’s Oscars season.
It’s a movie especially appealing to the more rebellious and edgy creative crowd (who are often influencers) as a source of status and distinctiveness through taste.

Killers Of The Flower Moon feels more like The Fabelmans and The Irishman type of film. Even if it gets some early success, it will peak early and it doesn’t have enough fundamentals to challenge in the Oscars. Considering the larger voting body and the overall context and vibe of the Oscars, the human element fundamentals come usually more into play there than in (more serious) industry awards in earlier season.

The Holdovers lack relevance in the theme for the zeitgeist and besides the strong initial emotional impact, it doesn’t offer much for long-term memory.

Past Lives doesn’t feel multilayered film enough, and Asian-driven films have gathered enough recognition in recent history.

Maestro and Anatomy Of Fall don’t offer anything exciting, special, or unique enough which could generate strong enough social buzz and hype to challenge for the Best Picture.

The Zone Of Interest has a theme that would gain more relevance if anti-Semitism were to intensify in the coming months in an obvious way, but the film itself feels too small to win the Best Picture.

Oppenheimer, Barbie, and Poor Things all offer excitement and relevant themes matching with the zeitgeist.